Sistema Regional de Información
en línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina,
el Caribe, España y Portugal

This paper studies the determinants of the real exchange rate using macroeconomic variables, and whether they can predict it. A panel data is used, which estimator is system GMM that allows controlling the endogeneity of the variables. In turn, we transformed the variables with forward orthogonal deviations (FOD) and first difference (FD), which allows us to eliminate unobserved effects that are invariant in time. To check the robustness of the estimates, different periods were used, from 1980-2019, 2000-2019 and 2010-2019. For the period 1980-2019, it is found that the past values of the real exchange rate, the current values of inflation, economic growth, fiscal and monetary policy have positive effects on the current values of the real exchange rate, while the money supply and the terms of trade have negative impacts on the real exchange rate. For the period 2000-2019, we had similar results and for the period 2010-2019, we found that economic growth has negative impacts on the real exchange rate. It is also presented the Arellano-Bond test and the Sargan test to estimate model over-identification. Using the Pedroni test, we estimated the cointegration of the variables with respect to the real exchange rate, finding cointegration with inflation in the long run. The originality of this paper is that we focused on Latin American countries, analyzing short-term relationships with the System GMM estimator and long-term relationships with the Pedroni Test.

This article seeks to understand the effects of trade creation and diversion in regional agreements and integration processes in Europe, South America, and North America. Through a systemic literature review, and based on the economic theory of integration, it analyzes the impact of tariff barriers on trading volume through the world, as well as the impact of barriers removals in member and non-member countries that participate in these trade agreements. As hypothesis, it can be stated that the trade effects generated by economic integration processes vary depending on the endogenous conditions of the industries in member countries, in addition to the consolidation phase of the integration processes. For this purpose, a qualitative descriptive methodology, based on an analysis of literature, is used to determine the trade creation and deviation effects of agreements in Europe (European Union), South America (MERCOSUR and CAN), and North America (NAFTA).

This document objective is to analyze the performance of selected Latin American countries in relation to their institutional framework, that is to say their legal systems, rules, norms and other regulatory provisions. These elements define, to large extent, the functioning and performance of markets linked to good and services, labor and financial systems. Specifically, by means of a factorial analysis along with a clustering process, the most significant explanatory variables on the trend and behavior of six out of 12 pillars for competitiveness as stated by the World Economic Forum have been identified and, likewise, the countries have been classified into a homogenous regional subgroups according to their performance.

La economía hindú india es una de los principales impulsores de la economía mundial a través del comercio. Para Perú es una alternativa para venderle productos agrarios, considerando que India es un país agrícola y su dieta se basa en frutas y verduras. La producción peruana atiende en la actualidad grandes mercados y con India completa la atención a estos gigantes. A este mercado se le está atendiendo todavía con pocos productos y volumen, sin embargo, para obtener mejor provecho es conveniente que exista un tratado de libre comercio entre los dos países. Al realizarse dicho acuerdo aparece un desafío, en cuanto a cómo incrementar la producción y como integrar a otros agentes locales a la cadena de exportación. La investigación, que es de carácter cualitativo, trata de explicar cómo es el proceso de esta reciente relación. Para la obtención de datos primarios se entrevistó a 23 expertos en el tema de la relación entre Perú e India en productos agrarios.

This paper explores international trade data, classified by technology-intensiveness and type of products, to identify stylized facts, strengths, and weaknesses of the trade patterns in the region of Central America and the Dominican Republic, between 1975 and 2016. I focus the analysis not only on the total export of the region but on its exports to the United States (main trade partner). I examine export concentration, comparative advantages, trade specialization, and relative quality of the export basket (characterizing zones with high tax incentives in the region, free zones). The main findings suggest that the region has made little progress in improving trade accounts. The gains in diversification are being lost, the comparative advantages have historically remained in traditional exports, and the region does not appear to export quality to the world. The model of tax incentives is not generating local spillovers, and the relative quality of exports, as well as the specialization patterns, revive the idea of adjusting promotion schemes for local industry and direct investment. It is time for a competitiveness agenda.

This paper analyzes the trade position of China and the United States and the reason for the trade tensions between both economic powers. For this, trade position indicators are used and the logical method is applied, as well as comparative analysis and synthesis to understand the trade tensions, called in the academic literature as trade war. The study shows that the United States promotes free trade, as a strategy to increase or maintain its global participation, when the results favor it; on the other hand, when this does not occur or a threat is detected, as in the case of China, the United States uses trade policy instruments. The data shows that China has played well with the rules of WTO to increase its participation in the international trade since joining this organization.

China has become the mayor producer of vehicles worldwide and the main companies in the country began to expand globally. The presence of Chinese companies in the automotive industry in Mexico represents an opportunity for complementarity, expansion and development of the sector for both countries. The arrival of Chinese companies BAIC and JAC to Mexico has positively impacted the sector in terms of investment, employment and infrastructure. China's foreign direct investment in the Mexican automotive industry increases the production capacity of the sector in Mexico and represents a medium-term opportunity to increase exports in the sector.

This is a personal reflection; it does not necessarily represent the opinion of the OECD or its members, nor of the Undersecretariat for International Economic Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Chile.

Chile and Argentina have put their radars on trade with Southeast Asian countries, in which Indonesia appears as one of the main countries. In recent years, Chile has had a more aggressive trade policy towards Indonesia. The most recent proof has been the signing of the Indonesia - Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA), which entered into force in 2019. The objective of this article is to present a comparative analysis of trade flows between Argentina - Indonesia and Chile - Indonesia, looking for similarities and differences between both types of bilateral ties, so that they can serve as models to improve existing relations, learning from what it has happened in each one of them.